Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Djurgardens IF (76%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Djurgardens IF face Degerfors IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF meet at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's home record at 3Arena: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Degerfors IF (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Degerfors IF have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Djurgardens IF's favour (1.90 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 5 wins for Djurgardens IF, 3 for Degerfors IF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2026, ended 1–0 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 48% versus Degerfors IF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 48% | Degerfors IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.60 xG and Degerfors IF 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.467 / defence 0.879 | Degerfors IF attack 0.677 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.467 — their λ of 2.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Djurgardens IF games / 49 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 76% | Draw 16% | Degerfors IF 8%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.32 | Draw 6.25 | Degerfors IF 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (76%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 50% | Degerfors IF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 76% | Draw 16% | Degerfors IF 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 51% | xG Djurgardens IF 2.60 / Degerfors IF 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.467 / def 0.879 | Degerfors IF attack 0.677 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Degerfors IF xG
51%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 3Arena.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 76% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 8% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF?
Record (9 meetings): Djurgardens IF 5W | Draws 1 | Degerfors IF 3W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.47) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.68x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
76%
1.32
16%
6.31
8%
12.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.38
0.78
Degerfors IF xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.31
16%
Draw
12.08
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
7%
13.50
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
1%
163.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.78 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 48 games, going 23W 12D 13L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 0.90 PPG from 48 outings (11W 10D 27L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 11W 8D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (8W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 0.94 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 23W 12D 13L in their last 48 games (1.69 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 11W 10D 27L in their last 48 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.71 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 5-1 on 6 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 5, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 58%, Degerfors IF 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Djurgardens IF) and 62% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Djurgardens IF's games and 58% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 62% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.