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Vasteras SK FK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Degerfors IF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat Degerfors IF 2-0 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. It was 1-0 at the break, with 1 further goal after it. Scorers: M. Ladefoged (8') · K. Gunnarsson (54'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.51 xG and Degerfors IF 2.11 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.01 / defence 1.37 against Degerfors IF attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 27% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 51%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 68%, Degerfors IF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 80% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Degerfors IF's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 71% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.

In-Play Signals

Degerfors IF controlled the ball (58%). That matched the side the model favoured, and they were undone despite it. Degerfors IF shot more often (12 to 8, 2 on target). The scoring opened before half-time (1-0 at the interval). 1 of the 2 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics