Kalmar FF 1-2 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kalmar FF and IFK Norrkoping meet at Guldfågeln Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 26 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kalmar FF's home record at Guldfågeln Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
IFK Norrkoping have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Kalmar FF. A 0.50 PPG lead over IFK Norrkoping (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kalmar FF lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Kalmar FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kalmar FF 52% and IFK Norrkoping 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 48% | IFK Norrkoping 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.33 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.948 / defence 0.931 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.925 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 0.940. Data: 34 Kalmar FF games / 34 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 49% | Draw 28% | IFK Norrkoping 23%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | IFK Norrkoping 4.35. Kalmar FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kalmar FF at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Kalmar FF 50% | IFK Norrkoping 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 49% | Draw 28% | IFK Norrkoping 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Kalmar FF 1.33 / IFK Norrkoping 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.948 / def 0.931 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.925 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.310 / away 0.940 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
0.81
IFK Norrkoping xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Kalmar FF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 26 April 2022 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Kalmar FF 1 - 2 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Kalmar FF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Kalmar FF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 49% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Kalmar FF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (4 meetings): Kalmar FF 2W | Draws 0 | IFK Norrkoping 2W.
What form are Kalmar FF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kalmar FF's attack rating (0.95) and IFK Norrkoping's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.93x) against Kalmar FF's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.53
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.14
0.81
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
6%
16.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 0.81 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 20W 18D 22L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 26W 12D 22L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.50 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kalmar FF have posted 1.07 PPG from 30 outings (7W 11D 12L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 12W 3D 15L from 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.75 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 70%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 26W 12D 22L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IFK Norrkoping's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.07 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
5
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 3, IFK Norrkoping have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2024, when IFK Norrkoping 2-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 47%, IFK Norrkoping 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Kalmar FF) and 67% (IFK Norrkoping). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Kalmar FF's games and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalmar FF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Kalmar FF's matches and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Kalmar FF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Norrkoping defy the odds to beat Kalmar FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Kalmar FF 1-2 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.33 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.81 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.95 / defence 0.93 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 49% | Draw 28% | IFK Norrkoping 23%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a IFK Norrkoping win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 48%, IFK Norrkoping 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.30 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.