Orgryte IS 1-2 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
IF Brommapojkarna travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS in Allsvenskan (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Orgryte IS stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Orgryte IS at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Brommapojkarna — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Orgryte IS are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Orgryte IS, 1 for IF Brommapojkarna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2022, ended Orgryte IS 1–3 IF Brommapojkarna — a IF Brommapojkarna win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 66% versus IF Brommapojkarna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 59% | IF Brommapojkarna 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.55 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.861 / defence 1.092 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.897 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.316. Data: built from Orgryte IS's last 3 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 43% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 32%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.31 | Draw 4.02 | IF Brommapojkarna 3.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Orgryte IS's last 10 home games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Orgryte IS 80% (last 10 home games) | IF Brommapojkarna 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Orgryte IS 3 games, IF Brommapojkarna 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 4 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 43% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Orgryte IS 1.55 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.861 / def 1.092 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.897 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.29
IF Brommapojkarna xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna FAQs
What time does Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Orgryte IS 1 - 2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 4) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 43% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Orgryte IS's last 3 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
43%
2.31
25%
4.02
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.84
1.29
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.29 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 13W 9D 10L from 32 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five.
IF Brommapojkarna, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 19L across 32 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Orgryte IS by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IF Brommapojkarna heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 8W 3D 5L from their last 16 home games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record stands at 5W 4D 7L across their last 16 away games, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.28 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Early Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
Orgryte IS (Home) vs IF Brommapojkarna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Orgryte IS
Early Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
❓ Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna Form FAQs
What form are Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 13W 9D 10L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 9W 4D 19L in their last 32 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.69 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. They cover more than one competition — Superettan, Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
IF Brommapojkarna have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
3
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Orgryte IS have won 0, IF Brommapojkarna have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: IF Brommapojkarna 3-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 75%, IF Brommapojkarna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Orgryte IS and 44% for IF Brommapojkarna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Orgryte IS's games and 50% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Orgryte IS's matches and 44% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 94% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 56% of IF Brommapojkarna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Brommapojkarna defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Orgryte IS 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.55 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.29 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 43% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 32%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 59%, IF Brommapojkarna 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with IF Brommapojkarna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.