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Last-gasp drama as Mjallby AIF snatch the points — Mjallby AIF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AIK Stockholm found a late winner to edge Mjallby AIF 1-2 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. It was 0-0 at the break, with 3 further goals after it. Scorers: V. Andersson (74') · A. Helm (90') · A. Youssef (90'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.26 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.26 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.86 / defence 0.82 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 35%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual AIK Stockholm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 44%, AIK Stockholm 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 68% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 76% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.54. Form was overturned, with AIK Stockholm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

In-Play Signals

Mjallby AIF controlled the ball (61%). The model had leaned the other way, toward AIK Stockholm; and AIK Stockholm justified the model by winning without the ball. Mjallby AIF shot more often (27 to 7, 6 on target). AIK Stockholm were the sharper finishers, converting at 29% against 4% — the kind of finishing edge that decides games the underlying numbers call close. The game stayed goalless into the break before it came to life. 3 of the 3 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance. With the decisive goal arriving late, the fixture spent most of its length tracking closer to expectation than the final scoreline suggests.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics