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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Malmo FF and Sirius share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Malmo FF and Sirius finished level at 1-1 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.58 xG and Sirius 1.19 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.19 / defence 0.92 against Sirius attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 47% | Draw 25% | Sirius 29%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 65%, Sirius 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights