Malmo FF 1-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Malmo FF (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Malmo FF face Sirius.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Sirius travel to Eleda Stadion to take on Malmo FF. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 April 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Malmo FF stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Malmo FF's home record at Eleda Stadion: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Malmo FF are significantly better at Eleda Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sirius's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Malmo FF are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Malmo FF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sirius in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Malmo FF have won 4, Sirius 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Sirius winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Sirius in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 47% versus Sirius 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 65% | Sirius 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.58 xG and Sirius 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.186 / defence 0.920 | Sirius attack 1.100 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.173. Data: 33 Malmo FF games / 33 Sirius games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 47% | Draw 25% | Sirius 29%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Sirius 3.45. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Malmo FF at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Malmo FF 60% | Sirius 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 47% | Draw 25% | Sirius 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Malmo FF 1.58 / Sirius 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.186 / def 0.920 | Sirius attack 1.100 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sirius xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Sirius kick off?
Malmo FF vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 18 April 2025 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Malmo FF 1 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Malmo FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Sirius part of?
Malmo FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 47% chance of winning, Sirius a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Malmo FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Sirius?
Record (6 meetings): Malmo FF 4W | Draws 0 | Sirius 2W.
What form are Malmo FF and Sirius in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 1.19x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus Malmo FF's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
47%
2.15
25%
4.02
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.77
1.19
Sirius xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
6%
17.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Malmo FF and 1.19 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Malmo FF come into this having played 60 games, going 39W 12D 9L for 2.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.38 PPG from 60 outings (24W 11D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Malmo FF's home form reads 24W 4D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Malmo FF are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.63 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 39W 12D 9L in their last 60 games (2.15 PPG), while Sirius have gone 24W 11D 25L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Sirius away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.53 PPG; Sirius away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Sirius in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Sirius won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Malmo FF's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Malmo FF
1
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 5, Sirius have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Sirius 0-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and Sirius?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 43%, Sirius 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Malmo FF and 57% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Sirius in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Malmo FF's recent matches and 57% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Malmo FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Malmo FF's matches and 57% of Sirius's.
Do Malmo FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Malmo FF and Sirius share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF and Sirius finished level at 1-1 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.58 xG and Sirius 1.19 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.19 / defence 0.92 against Sirius attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 47% | Draw 25% | Sirius 29%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 65%, Sirius 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.