Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo – Match Report

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Landskrona BoIS and IFK Varnamo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Relegation Round, as Landskrona BoIS and IFK Varnamo drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 0.88 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.13 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Varnamo outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.85 / defence 0.73, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 28% | Draw 30% | IFK Varnamo 41%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 63%, IFK Varnamo 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.30 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights