IFK Varnamo 1-2 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 39%, yet in-form Djurgardens IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Djurgardens IF travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo in Allsvenskan (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
IFK Varnamo — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, IFK Varnamo have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Djurgardens IF have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Djurgardens IF have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Djurgardens IF are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for IFK Varnamo, 1 for Djurgardens IF and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Aug 2022, ended IFK Varnamo 0–0 Djurgardens IF — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 51% versus Djurgardens IF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 46% | Djurgardens IF 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: IFK Varnamo surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Djurgardens IF have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.38 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.809 / defence 1.078 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.999 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.134. Data: built from IFK Varnamo's last 43 games and Djurgardens IF's last 44.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 31%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.60 | Draw 3.30 | Djurgardens IF 3.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Djurgardens IF (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IFK Varnamo 60% (last 10 home games) | Djurgardens IF 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 14 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 8 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG IFK Varnamo 1.38 / Djurgardens IF 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.809 / def 1.078 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.999 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Djurgardens IF xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF FAQs
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 8 July 2023 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 2 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 14) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 39% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IFK Varnamo's last 43 games and Djurgardens IF's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
39%
2.60
30%
3.30
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.60
1.22
Djurgardens IF xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.22 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 43 games, going 14W 10D 19L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.81 PPG from 43 outings (23W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across their last 21 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 21 away games (6W 7D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's recent record.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.70 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IFK Varnamo (Home) vs Djurgardens IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF Form FAQs
What form are IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 23W 9D 11L in their last 43 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Djurgardens IF away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.29 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.19 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 25 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Jul 2022, when Djurgardens IF won Djurgardens IF 5-0 IFK Varnamo.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
2
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2025: Djurgardens IF 6-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 52%, Djurgardens IF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (IFK Varnamo) and 38% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 33%; IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 29% of games; Djurgardens IF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 43% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 38% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 62% of Djurgardens IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Djurgardens IF defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IFK Varnamo 1-2 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.38 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.22 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.81 / defence 1.08 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.00 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 31%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 46%, Djurgardens IF 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.