IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna host Degerfors IF at Grimsta IP in Allsvenskan (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 8 July 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
IF Brommapojkarna — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Degerfors IF have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Degerfors IF have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
IF Brommapojkarna are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Brommapojkarna 63% and Degerfors IF 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 65% | Degerfors IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.79 xG and Degerfors IF 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.717 / defence 1.199 | Degerfors IF attack 0.779 / defence 1.651. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.149. IF Brommapojkarna's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.79. Degerfors IF's defence rating of 1.651 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IF Brommapojkarna's projected output up. Degerfors IF's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 13 games and Degerfors IF's last 44.
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 52% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 21%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 1.91 | Draw 3.75 | Degerfors IF 4.80. IF Brommapojkarna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Brommapojkarna at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (IF Brommapojkarna's last 10 home games and Degerfors IF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IF Brommapojkarna 50% (last 10 home games) | Degerfors IF 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 14 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Saturday 8 July 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 52% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.79 / Degerfors IF 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.717 / def 1.199 | Degerfors IF attack 0.779 / def 1.651 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Degerfors IF xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF FAQs
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 8 July 2023 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF?
IF Brommapojkarna 1 - 2 Degerfors IF.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 14) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 52% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 0.72x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.65x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 13 games and Degerfors IF's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.75
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.87
1.07
Degerfors IF xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
3%
28.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.07 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IF Brommapojkarna's recent record stands at 25W 6D 12L from 43 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 21L across 43 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Brommapojkarna by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IF Brommapojkarna have managed 13W 3D 4L from their last 20 home games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 2W 4D 14L across their last 20 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Degerfors IF's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Brommapojkarna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.05 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Degerfors IF in 60%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna (Home) vs Degerfors IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF Form FAQs
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 25W 6D 12L in their last 43 games (1.88 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 10W 12D 21L in their last 43 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Degerfors IF away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 2.10 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2023. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Jun 2025, when IF Brommapojkarna won Degerfors IF 0-3 IF Brommapojkarna.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: IF Brommapojkarna 2-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 65%, Degerfors IF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for IF Brommapojkarna and 60% for Degerfors IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 60% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 60% of Degerfors IF's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 85% of Degerfors IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.79 xG and Degerfors IF 1.07 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.72 / defence 1.20 against Degerfors IF attack 0.78 / defence 1.65, drawn from 13/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 52% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 21%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Degerfors IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 65%, Degerfors IF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.