AIK Stockholm 1-2 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Friends Arena plays host to AIK Stockholm versus BK Hacken in Allsvenskan (matchday 14). Kick-off: Saturday 8 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
AIK Stockholm (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, AIK Stockholm have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
BK Hacken's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BK Hacken's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. BK Hacken are 1.30 PPG clear of AIK Stockholm over their recent games (2.00 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for AIK Stockholm, 2 for BK Hacken and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2022, ended AIK Stockholm 1–2 BK Hacken — a BK Hacken win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
AIK Stockholm half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
BK Hacken half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AIK Stockholm 49% and BK Hacken 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 46% | BK Hacken 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.09 xG and BK Hacken 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.863 / defence 1.086 | BK Hacken attack 1.273 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.134. BK Hacken have an above-average attack rating of 1.273, which lifts their away xG to 1.57. Data: built from AIK Stockholm's last 43 games and BK Hacken's last 44.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 24% | Draw 29% | BK Hacken 47%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 4.10 | Draw 3.44 | BK Hacken 2.15. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BK Hacken if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 home games) | BK Hacken 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 14 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 24% | Draw 29% | BK Hacken 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG AIK Stockholm 1.09 / BK Hacken 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.863 / def 1.086 | BK Hacken attack 1.273 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.57
BK Hacken xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken FAQs
What time does AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 8 July 2023 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 2 BK Hacken.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken part of?
AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 14) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 24% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 0.86x the league average against BK Hacken's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — BK Hacken's attack (1.27x) against AIK Stockholm's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from AIK Stockholm's last 43 games and BK Hacken's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
24%
4.10
29%
3.44
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.65
1.57
BK Hacken xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
5%
19.66
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.57 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 16W 12D 15L from 43 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 5L across 43 games — 2.09 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours BK Hacken by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AIK Stockholm heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 9W 7D 5L from their last 21 home games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 11W 8D 2L across their last 21 away games, a 1.95 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.35 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 74%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
AIK Stockholm (Home) vs BK Hacken (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AIK Stockholm
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken Form FAQs
What form are AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 16W 12D 15L in their last 43 games (1.40 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 26W 12D 5L in their last 43 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or BK Hacken away?
BK Hacken's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.62 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.95 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BK Hacken won BK Hacken 4-1 AIK Stockholm on 2 Jun 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AIK Stockholm have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against BK Hacken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
6
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AIK Stockholm have won 1, BK Hacken have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: AIK Stockholm 3-2 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 38%, BK Hacken 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (AIK Stockholm) and 52% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 67% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 52% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 71% of BK Hacken's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BK Hacken edge out AIK Stockholm 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat AIK Stockholm 1-2 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.09 xG and BK Hacken 1.57 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against BK Hacken attack 1.27 / defence 0.83, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 24% | Draw 29% | BK Hacken 47%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 46%, BK Hacken 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.