IFK Norrkoping 0-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PlatinumCars Arena plays host to IFK Norrkoping versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Monday 18 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Norrkoping have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 5W 1D 4L at PlatinumCars Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for IFK Norrkoping, 1.60 for Mjallby AIF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: IFK Norrkoping 2W, Mjallby AIF 0W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with IFK Norrkoping winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
IFK Norrkoping half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 60% versus Mjallby AIF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 52% | Mjallby AIF 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.15 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.975 / defence 0.994 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.014 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.295. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 IFK Norrkoping games / 52 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 33% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 40%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Mjallby AIF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Norrkoping 50% | Mjallby AIF 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 33% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.15 / Mjallby AIF 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.975 / def 0.994 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.014 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Mjallby AIF xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 18 September 2023 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
IFK Norrkoping 0 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 33% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF?
Record (5 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 2W | Draws 3 | Mjallby AIF 0W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Norrkoping's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.01x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
33%
3.07
27%
3.68
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.45
1.31
Mjallby AIF xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
13%
7.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.31 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Norrkoping come into this having played 52 games, going 18W 14D 20L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.42 PPG from 52 outings (20W 14D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for IFK Norrkoping against 1.42 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
IFK Norrkoping's home form reads 10W 6D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.58 points per game from 26 outings (12W 5D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.06 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 18W 14D 20L in their last 52 games (1.31 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 20W 14D 18L in their last 52 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.38 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.58 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Norrkoping
4
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Mjallby AIF 2-1 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 50%, Mjallby AIF 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (IFK Norrkoping) and 27% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 46%; IFK Norrkoping have failed to score in 27% of games; Mjallby AIF in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 23% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 27% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IFK Norrkoping.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IFK Norrkoping 0-2 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.15 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.31 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.01 / defence 0.78, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 33% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 40%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 52%, Mjallby AIF 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.31 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.