AIK Stockholm 2-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AIK Stockholm face Degerfors IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host Degerfors IF at Friends Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 23). Kick-off is Monday 18 September 2023 at 19:10 UK time.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AIK Stockholm's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Degerfors IF stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Degerfors IF's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AIK Stockholm at 1.50 PPG versus Degerfors IF's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, AIK Stockholm have won 1, Degerfors IF 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2023, ended AIK Stockholm 1–2 Degerfors IF — a Degerfors IF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 52% versus Degerfors IF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 50% | Degerfors IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.98 xG and Degerfors IF 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.929 / defence 0.918 | Degerfors IF attack 0.815 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.302. Degerfors IF's defence rating of 1.425 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AIK Stockholm's projected output up. Data: built from AIK Stockholm's last 52 games and Degerfors IF's last 52.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 61% | Draw 21% | Degerfors IF 18%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.65 | Draw 4.70 | Degerfors IF 5.58. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AIK Stockholm's last 10 home games and Degerfors IF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 home games) | Degerfors IF 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 23 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 September 2023 at 19:10 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 61% | Draw 21% | Degerfors IF 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG AIK Stockholm 1.98 / Degerfors IF 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.929 / def 0.918 | Degerfors IF attack 0.815 / def 1.425 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Degerfors IF xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF FAQs
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 19:10 UK time on Monday 18 September 2023 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
AIK Stockholm 2 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 23) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 61% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 0.93x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AIK Stockholm's last 52 games and Degerfors IF's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.70
18%
5.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.95
0.97
Degerfors IF xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
5.58
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
2%
40.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.97 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 52 games, going 19W 15D 18L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.04 PPG from 52 outings (14W 12D 26L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.38 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 10W 9D 6L across their last 25 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.64 points per game from their last 25 away games (4W 4D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Degerfors IF's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.04 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
AIK Stockholm (Home) vs Degerfors IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF Form FAQs
What form are AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 19W 15D 18L in their last 52 games (1.38 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 14W 12D 26L in their last 52 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Degerfors IF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.56 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.64 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from April 2021. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 23 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Jul 2025, when AIK Stockholm won AIK Stockholm 3-0 Degerfors IF.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
2
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 April 2026: Degerfors IF 2-1 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 40%, Degerfors IF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (AIK Stockholm) and 60% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 60% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 60% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 80% of Degerfors IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AIK Stockholm cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Degerfors IF 2-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.98 xG and Degerfors IF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Degerfors IF attack 0.81 / defence 1.43, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 61% | Draw 21% | Degerfors IF 18%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 50%, Degerfors IF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.38 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.