Hammarby FF 1-3 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tele2 Arena plays host to Hammarby FF versus Malmo FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Hammarby FF (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Malmo FF have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Hammarby FF's favour (2.20 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Hammarby FF 1W, Malmo FF 1W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 2–4 with Malmo FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 46% versus Malmo FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 56% | Malmo FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.56 xG and Malmo FF 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.265 / defence 0.928 | Malmo FF attack 1.058 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.242. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Hammarby FF games / 52 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 45% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 30%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Malmo FF 3.33. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 60% | Malmo FF 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 45% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Hammarby FF 1.56 / Malmo FF 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.265 / def 0.928 | Malmo FF attack 1.058 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Malmo FF xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Hammarby FF 1 - 3 Malmo FF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 45% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hammarby FF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Malmo FF?
Record (4 meetings): Hammarby FF 1W | Draws 2 | Malmo FF 1W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Malmo FF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Malmo FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (1.06x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
45%
2.21
25%
4.01
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.78
1.22
Malmo FF xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
6%
16.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.22 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 26W 13D 13L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF's form line: 27W 11D 14L from 52 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Hammarby FF against 1.77 for Malmo FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.28 PPG from 25 outings (17W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 11W 4D 10L from 25 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.73 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Malmo FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 26W 13D 13L in their last 52 games (1.75 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 27W 11D 14L in their last 52 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Malmo FF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.28 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 4-1 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Malmo FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
3
Draws
3
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, Malmo FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hammarby FF 4-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Malmo FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 56%, Malmo FF 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Hammarby FF and 52% for Malmo FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Malmo FF in 36%; Malmo FF in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 44% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Hammarby FF's matches and 52% of Malmo FF's.
Do Hammarby FF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Malmo FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Hammarby FF 1-3 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.56 xG and Malmo FF 1.22 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Malmo FF outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.26 / defence 0.93 against Malmo FF attack 1.06 / defence 0.81, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 45% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 30%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Malmo FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 56%, Malmo FF 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Malmo FF's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.75 PPG, Malmo FF 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Malmo FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.