IFK Norrkoping 4-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Norrkoping host Hammarby FF at PlatinumCars Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 5 September 2022 at 18:10 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Norrkoping — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PlatinumCars Arena, IFK Norrkoping have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of IFK Norrkoping's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, IFK Norrkoping have won 1, Hammarby FF 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IFK Norrkoping in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 58% versus Hammarby FF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 50% | Hammarby FF 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.00 xG and Hammarby FF 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.885 / defence 1.186 | Hammarby FF attack 1.184 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.190. Hammarby FF's defence strength of 0.752 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 IFK Norrkoping games / 50 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 23% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 53%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Hammarby FF 1.89. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: IFK Norrkoping 40% | Hammarby FF 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Monday 5 Sep 2022, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 23% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.00 / Hammarby FF 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.885 / def 1.186 | Hammarby FF attack 1.184 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Hammarby FF xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 5 September 2022 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF?
IFK Norrkoping 4 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 23% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 1W | Draws 0 | Hammarby FF 2W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Norrkoping's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus IFK Norrkoping's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
23%
4.43
24%
4.12
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.67
1.67
Hammarby FF xG
4.43
23%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
4%
23.59
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.67 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, IFK Norrkoping have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 18W 11D 21L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 27W 12D 11L from 50 games, 1.86 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hammarby FF are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Norrkoping.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Norrkoping have posted 1.58 PPG from 24 outings (11W 5D 8L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 9W 6D 9L from 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
The Goals Picture
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.92 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 18W 11D 21L in their last 50 games (1.30 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 27W 12D 11L in their last 50 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Hammarby FF away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.58 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.38 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Norrkoping's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IFK Norrkoping
2
Draws
5
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, Hammarby FF have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 0-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 58%, Hammarby FF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (IFK Norrkoping) and 46% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 33%; Hammarby FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 46% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 46% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Norrkoping run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Hammarby FF 4-1 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.00 xG and Hammarby FF 1.67 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against Hammarby FF attack 1.18 / defence 0.75, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 23% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 53%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a IFK Norrkoping win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 50%, Hammarby FF 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with IFK Norrkoping winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.