IFK Varnamo 3-2 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Finnvedsvallen plays host to IFK Varnamo versus Helsingborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Monday 5 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Varnamo have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo at Finnvedsvallen this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Finnvedsvallen.
Helsingborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for IFK Varnamo, 0.90 for Helsingborg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, IFK Varnamo are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 4–1 with IFK Varnamo winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both IFK Varnamo and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Varnamo — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Helsingborg — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 48% versus Helsingborg 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 44% | Helsingborg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.27 xG and Helsingborg 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.705 / defence 0.963 | Helsingborg attack 0.743 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.155. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Helsingborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing IFK Varnamo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 IFK Varnamo games / 20 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 47% | Draw 29% | Helsingborg 24%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Helsingborg 4.17. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Varnamo at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. This conflicts with form data: IFK Varnamo 50% | Helsingborg 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 5 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 47% | Draw 29% | Helsingborg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.27 / Helsingborg 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.705 / def 0.963 | Helsingborg attack 0.743 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Helsingborg xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 5 September 2022 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg?
IFK Varnamo 3 - 2 Helsingborg.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 47% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Varnamo 3W | Draws 0 | Helsingborg 0W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Helsingborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Helsingborg's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (0.74x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.46
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.10
0.83
Helsingborg xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.83 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 22W 12D 16L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg's form line: 16W 13D 21L from 50 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for IFK Varnamo against 1.22 for Helsingborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 1.92 PPG from 24 outings (13W 7D 4L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 8W 7D 9L from 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.16 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 22W 12D 16L in their last 50 games (1.56 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 16W 13D 21L in their last 50 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Helsingborg away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.92 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.29 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 16 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Varnamo won 1-4 on 21 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
IFK Varnamo
0
Draws
1
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg?
From 5 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 4, Helsingborg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 16 June 2026, when IFK Varnamo 0-1 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 46%, Helsingborg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (IFK Varnamo) and 62% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Helsingborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 54% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 62% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Varnamo edge out Helsingborg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Helsingborg 3-2 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.27 xG and Helsingborg 0.83 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Helsingborg outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.70 / defence 0.96 against Helsingborg attack 0.74 / defence 1.22, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 47% | Draw 29% | Helsingborg 24%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 44%, Helsingborg 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Helsingborg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.56 PPG, Helsingborg 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Helsingborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.