Hammarby FF 0-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 49%, yet in-form Djurgardens IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 22 as Hammarby FF welcome Djurgardens IF to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Djurgardens IF's 2.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hammarby FF's 1.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hammarby FF, 2 for Djurgardens IF and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Djurgardens IF trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 53% versus Djurgardens IF 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 59% | Djurgardens IF 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.55 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.377 / defence 0.850 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.027 / defence 0.739. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.193. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.739 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Hammarby FF games / 51 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 49% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 25%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Djurgardens IF 4.00. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Djurgardens IF (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hammarby FF 40% | Djurgardens IF 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 49% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Hammarby FF 1.55 / Djurgardens IF 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.377 / def 0.850 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.027 / def 0.739 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Djurgardens IF xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Hammarby FF 0 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 49% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (2 meetings): Hammarby FF 0W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 2W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.38) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
49%
2.04
25%
3.93
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.59
1.04
Djurgardens IF xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
5%
18.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.04 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 27W 12D 12L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 30W 11D 10L from 51 games, 1.98 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.82 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.31 PPG from 26 outings (18W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 11W 8D 7L from 26 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.75 scored and 0.90 conceded. Hammarby FF's scoring rate against Djurgardens IF's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 27W 12D 12L in their last 51 games (1.82 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 30W 11D 10L in their last 51 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.31 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Djurgardens IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
4
Draws
2
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, Djurgardens IF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 58%, Djurgardens IF 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Hammarby FF) and 27% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 42%; Djurgardens IF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 31% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 27% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hammarby FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.55 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.04 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hammarby FF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Djurgardens IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.38 / defence 0.85 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.03 / defence 0.74, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 49% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 25%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 59%, Djurgardens IF 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.82 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.