IFK Norrkoping 5-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Norrkoping host GIF Sundsvall at PlatinumCars Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Norrkoping — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at PlatinumCars Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — IFK Norrkoping are significantly better at PlatinumCars Arena than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.81 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.958 / defence 0.912 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.769 / defence 1.424. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.048. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.424 — this is suppressing IFK Norrkoping's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 IFK Norrkoping games / 7 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 63% | Draw 22% | GIF Sundsvall 15%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | GIF Sundsvall 6.67. The model has a clear lean to IFK Norrkoping (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 63% | Draw 22% | GIF Sundsvall 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 44% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.81 / GIF Sundsvall 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.958 / def 0.912 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.769 / def 1.424 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
0.73
GIF Sundsvall xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall?
IFK Norrkoping 5 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 63% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. IFK Norrkoping home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IFK Norrkoping's attack rating (0.96) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus IFK Norrkoping's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.49
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.55
0.73
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
2%
42.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 0.73 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
IFK Norrkoping go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when IFK Norrkoping won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
3
IFK Norrkoping
0
Draws
0
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall?
From 3 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-3 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant IFK Norrkoping run riot with a 5-1 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat GIF Sundsvall 5-1 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.81 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.73 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.77 / defence 1.42, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 63% | Draw 22% | GIF Sundsvall 15%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.