Djurgardens IF 4-0 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 8 as Djurgardens IF welcome Malmo FF to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 May 2022 at 18:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Djurgardens IF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Malmo FF have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Malmo FF's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Djurgardens IF's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Djurgardens IF, 0 for Malmo FF and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Djurgardens IF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Malmo FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 47% versus Malmo FF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 53% | Malmo FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.33 xG and Malmo FF 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.378 / defence 1.055 | Malmo FF attack 0.795 / defence 0.700. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.044. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.378 — their λ of 1.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Malmo FF's defence strength of 0.700 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Djurgardens IF games / 38 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 47% | Draw 28% | Malmo FF 25%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Malmo FF 4.00. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Malmo FF (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 70% | Malmo FF 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 16 May 2022, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 47% | Draw 28% | Malmo FF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.33 / Malmo FF 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.378 / def 1.055 | Malmo FF attack 0.795 / def 0.700 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Malmo FF xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 16 May 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Djurgardens IF 4 - 0 Malmo FF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 47% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF?
Record (1 meetings): Djurgardens IF 0W | Draws 1 | Malmo FF 0W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Djurgardens IF's attack at 1.38x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.56
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.21
0.88
Malmo FF xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
6%
15.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.88 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 60 games, going 31W 12D 17L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.98 PPG from 60 outings (34W 17D 9L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.75 PPG, Malmo FF on 1.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 17W 6D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.77 points per game from 30 outings (15W 8D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.03 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF in 60%.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Malmo FF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 games (1.75 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 34W 17D 9L in their last 60 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Malmo FF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.90 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2022, when Djurgardens IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
4
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 4, Malmo FF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 0-1 Malmo FF.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 57%, Malmo FF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Djurgardens IF and 60% for Malmo FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Malmo FF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Djurgardens IF's games and 60% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 60% of Malmo FF's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Malmo FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Malmo FF 4-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.33 xG and Malmo FF 0.88 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Malmo FF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.38 / defence 1.05 against Malmo FF attack 0.80 / defence 0.70, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 47% | Draw 28% | Malmo FF 25%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 53%, Malmo FF 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.75 PPG, Malmo FF 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.