Degerfors IF 2-1 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 44%, yet in-form Degerfors IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Degerfors IF host Helsingborg at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Helsingborg have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Helsingborg away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Degerfors IF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 47% versus Helsingborg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 57% | Helsingborg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.18 xG and Helsingborg 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.780 / defence 1.534 | Helsingborg attack 0.916 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.048. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Degerfors IF games / 8 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 44%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Helsingborg 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Degerfors IF (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.6 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 70% | Helsingborg 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Degerfors IF 1.18 / Helsingborg 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.780 / def 1.534 | Helsingborg attack 0.916 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Helsingborg xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg?
Degerfors IF 2 - 1 Helsingborg.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg part of?
Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 30% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Degerfors IF and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Helsingborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Degerfors IF and Helsingborg in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Helsingborg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.78x the league average against Helsingborg's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
30%
3.30
26%
3.88
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.65
1.47
Helsingborg xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
7%
14.39
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.47 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 10W 4D 16L from 30 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Helsingborg, meanwhile, have gone 6W 11D 13L across 30 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Helsingborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.13 PPG, Helsingborg on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 7W 1D 7L from 15 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helsingborg's away record stands at 3W 5D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.20 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helsingborg in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
Helsingborg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 10W 4D 16L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 6W 11D 13L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Helsingborg away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.47 PPG; Helsingborg away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
0
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Helsingborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, Helsingborg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2024, when Helsingborg 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Helsingborg?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Degerfors IF at 53%, Helsingborg at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Degerfors IF and 73% for Helsingborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Helsingborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Degerfors IF's games and 80% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Degerfors IF's matches and 73% of Helsingborg's.
Do Degerfors IF and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat Helsingborg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Helsingborg 2-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.18 xG and Helsingborg 1.47 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.78 / defence 1.53 against Helsingborg attack 0.92 / defence 1.13, drawn from 37/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 44%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 57%, Helsingborg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Helsingborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.13 PPG, Helsingborg 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.