IFK Norrkoping 1-3 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Djurgardens IF (66%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as IFK Norrkoping face Djurgardens IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PlatinumCars Arena plays host to IFK Norrkoping versus Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan (matchday 13). Kick-off: Monday 8 July 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
IFK Norrkoping (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
IFK Norrkoping's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Djurgardens IF have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Djurgardens IF's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Djurgardens IF are 1.00 PPG clear of IFK Norrkoping over their recent games (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Djurgardens IF have the stronger record — 4 wins to IFK Norrkoping's 0, with 2 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended IFK Norrkoping 0–2 Djurgardens IF — a Djurgardens IF win.
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 64% versus Djurgardens IF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 67% | Djurgardens IF 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: IFK Norrkoping surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Djurgardens IF have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.22 xG and Djurgardens IF 2.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.942 / defence 1.376 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.388 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.338. Djurgardens IF bring a tight defence (rating 0.766, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling IFK Norrkoping's projected output down. Djurgardens IF have an above-average attack rating of 1.388, which lifts their away xG to 2.56. IFK Norrkoping's defence rating of 1.376 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Djurgardens IF's projected output up. Data: built from IFK Norrkoping's last 42 games and Djurgardens IF's last 42.
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 16% | Draw 17% | Djurgardens IF 66%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 6.11 | Draw 5.76 | Djurgardens IF 1.51. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (66%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.22 / 2.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.78 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (IFK Norrkoping's last 10 home games and Djurgardens IF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: IFK Norrkoping 40% (last 10 home games) | Djurgardens IF 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 13 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Monday 8 July 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 16% | Draw 17% | Djurgardens IF 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.22 / Djurgardens IF 2.56 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.942 / def 1.376 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.388 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
2.56
Djurgardens IF xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF FAQs
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 8 July 2024 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
IFK Norrkoping 1 - 3 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 13) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 16% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 66% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IFK Norrkoping's attack at 0.94x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.39x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 2.56.
These ratings are built from IFK Norrkoping's last 42 games and Djurgardens IF's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 1-3 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
16%
6.11
17%
5.76
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
3.78
2.56
Djurgardens IF xG
6.11
16%
Home win
5.76
17%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
8%
12.90
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
1%
78.78
20%
5.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 2.56 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Norrkoping come into this having played 42 games, going 15W 7D 20L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.79 PPG from 42 outings (23W 6D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
IFK Norrkoping's home form reads 9W 2D 9L across their last 20 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 20 away games (9W 3D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.55 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IFK Norrkoping (Home) vs Djurgardens IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF Form FAQs
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 15W 7D 20L in their last 42 games (1.24 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 23W 6D 13L in their last 42 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.45 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.50 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 31 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won IFK Norrkoping 0-4 Djurgardens IF on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
IFK Norrkoping
3
Draws
7
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Norrkoping have won 0, Djurgardens IF have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2025: IFK Norrkoping 0-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 50%, Djurgardens IF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (IFK Norrkoping) and 50% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 50% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 50% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 60% of Djurgardens IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IFK Norrkoping.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IFK Norrkoping 1-3 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.22 xG and Djurgardens IF 2.56 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.94 / defence 1.38 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.39 / defence 0.77, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 16% | Draw 17% | Djurgardens IF 66%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 67%, Djurgardens IF 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.