AIK Stockholm 1-2 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 69% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AIK Stockholm face Kalmar FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host Kalmar FF at Strawberry Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 7 July 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, AIK Stockholm have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AIK Stockholm are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Kalmar FF have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kalmar FF away from home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AIK Stockholm 1.30 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for AIK Stockholm, 2 for Kalmar FF and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2023, ended AIK Stockholm 1–1 Kalmar FF — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 55% versus Kalmar FF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 52% | Kalmar FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 2.82 xG and Kalmar FF 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.414 / defence 0.943 | Kalmar FF attack 1.003 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.367. AIK Stockholm carry an above-average attack rating of 1.414 — their 2.82 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from AIK Stockholm's last 42 games and Kalmar FF's last 42.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 69% | Draw 16% | Kalmar FF 15%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.45 | Draw 6.32 | Kalmar FF 6.64. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (69%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.82 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AIK Stockholm are the pick at 69% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.11 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (AIK Stockholm's last 10 home games and Kalmar FF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 home games) | Kalmar FF 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 13 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 July 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 69% | Draw 16% | Kalmar FF 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% (Under 22%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG AIK Stockholm 2.82 / Kalmar FF 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.414 / def 0.943 | Kalmar FF attack 1.003 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.82
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Kalmar FF xG
68%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF FAQs
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 2 Kalmar FF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 13) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 69% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 15% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AIK Stockholm's attack rating (1.41) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AIK Stockholm's last 42 games and Kalmar FF's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
69%
1.45
16%
6.32
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
6.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.82
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
4.11
1.29
Kalmar FF xG
1.45
69%
Home win
6.32
16%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
6%
16.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
1%
111.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.82 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.29 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, AIK Stockholm have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 14W 11D 17L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Kalmar FF's form line: 16W 7D 19L from 42 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.26 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AIK Stockholm have posted 1.86 PPG from their last 21 home games (11W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — AIK Stockholm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 7W 3D 11L from their last 21 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.24 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
AIK Stockholm (Home) vs Kalmar FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF Form FAQs
What form are AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 14W 11D 17L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 16W 7D 19L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Kalmar FF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.86 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.14 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2020. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AIK Stockholm have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
3
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: AIK Stockholm 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 48%, Kalmar FF 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (AIK Stockholm) and 62% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 52% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 62% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 81% of Kalmar FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kalmar FF defy the odds to beat AIK Stockholm 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat AIK Stockholm 1-2 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 2.82 xG and Kalmar FF 1.29 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AIK Stockholm fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.41 / defence 0.94 against Kalmar FF attack 1.00 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 69% | Draw 16% | Kalmar FF 15%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Kalmar FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 52%, Kalmar FF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.26 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.