IFK Goteborg 3-4 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 16 as IFK Goteborg welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 July 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Goteborg stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg at Gamla Ullevi this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (IFK Goteborg) versus 1.00 (IF Brommapojkarna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, IFK Goteborg have won 2, IF Brommapojkarna 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with IFK Goteborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 47% versus IF Brommapojkarna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 40% | IF Brommapojkarna 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.01 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.697 / defence 0.934 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.971 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.334. IFK Goteborg's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 IFK Goteborg games / 45 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 31% | Draw 29% | IF Brommapojkarna 41%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 50% | IF Brommapojkarna 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 31% | Draw 29% | IF Brommapojkarna 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.01 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.697 / def 0.934 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.971 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.21
IF Brommapojkarna xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
IFK Goteborg 3 - 4 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 31% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Goteborg 2W | Draws 1 | IF Brommapojkarna 0W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 0.70x the league average against IF Brommapojkarna's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
31%
3.26
29%
3.47
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.22
1.21
IF Brommapojkarna xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.21 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 13W 13D 19L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna's form line: 15W 10D 20L from 45 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.16 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 9W 4D 9L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.44 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 15W 10D 20L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
IF Brommapojkarna's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.23 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2024, when IFK Goteborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 7 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 4, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when IFK Goteborg 2-1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 46%, IF Brommapojkarna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (IFK Goteborg) and 54% (IF Brommapojkarna).
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna in 32%; IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play IF Brommapojkarna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 54% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 54% of IF Brommapojkarna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Brommapojkarna edge out IFK Goteborg 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat IFK Goteborg 3-4 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.01 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.21 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. IFK Goteborg beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 1.21 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.70 / defence 0.93 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 31% | Draw 29% | IF Brommapojkarna 41%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 40%, IF Brommapojkarna 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.16 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.