IFK Goteborg 1-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 15 as IFK Goteborg welcome Vasteras SK FK to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 July 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IFK Goteborg at 1.30 PPG versus Vasteras SK FK's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
IFK Goteborg trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 46% versus Vasteras SK FK 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 41% | Vasteras SK FK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 0.95 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.692 / defence 0.927 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.813 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.370. IFK Goteborg's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 IFK Goteborg games / 14 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 32% | Draw 31% | Vasteras SK FK 37%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Vasteras SK FK 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 40% | Vasteras SK FK 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 32% | Draw 31% | Vasteras SK FK 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG IFK Goteborg 0.95 / Vasteras SK FK 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.692 / def 0.927 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.813 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Vasteras SK FK xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 32% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IFK Goteborg's attack rating (0.69) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
32%
3.09
31%
3.23
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
1.98
1.03
Vasteras SK FK xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 14.2 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.03 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Goteborg come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 12D 19L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.68 PPG from 44 outings (22W 8D 14L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
IFK Goteborg's home form reads 7W 5D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 1.57 points per game from 21 outings (10W 3D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.34 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 22W 8D 14L in their last 44 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.24 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.57 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
0
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK?
From 3 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 4-5 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 43%, Vasteras SK FK 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (IFK Goteborg) and 52% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK in 33%; IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 33% of games; Vasteras SK FK in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 43% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 52% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK finished level at 1-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 0.95 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.03 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.69 / defence 0.93 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.81 / defence 0.83, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 32% | Draw 31% | Vasteras SK FK 37%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 41%, Vasteras SK FK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.