IF Elfsborg 1-2 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 52%, yet in-form Djurgardens IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 July 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IF Elfsborg's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Djurgardens IF (all games): 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Djurgardens IF arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from IF Elfsborg's last 10 home games and Djurgardens IF's last 10 away games) — IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Djurgardens IF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for IF Elfsborg, 2 for Djurgardens IF and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended IF Elfsborg 0–2 Djurgardens IF — a Djurgardens IF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 47% versus Djurgardens IF 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 62% | Djurgardens IF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.97 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.387 / defence 0.760 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.319 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.348. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack rating of 1.387 — their 1.97 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Djurgardens IF have an above-average attack rating of 1.319, which lifts their away xG to 1.35. IF Elfsborg have a tight defence (rating 0.760), which is pulling Djurgardens IF's projected output down. Data: built from IF Elfsborg's last 46 games and Djurgardens IF's last 45.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 52% | Draw 22% | Djurgardens IF 26%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.93 | Draw 4.57 | Djurgardens IF 3.81. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.97 / 1.35) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Djurgardens IF (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (IF Elfsborg's last 10 home games and Djurgardens IF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IF Elfsborg 60% (last 10 home games) | Djurgardens IF 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 16 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 52% | Draw 22% | Djurgardens IF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG IF Elfsborg 1.97 / Djurgardens IF 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.387 / def 0.760 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.319 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Djurgardens IF xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF FAQs
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 2 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 16) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 52% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.32x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from IF Elfsborg's last 46 games and Djurgardens IF's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
52%
1.93
22%
4.57
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.32
1.35
Djurgardens IF xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
4%
27.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.35 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 45 games, going 28W 5D 12L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.80 PPG from 45 outings (25W 6D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.80 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 16W 4D 2L across their last 22 home games, a 2.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 22 away games (10W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.56 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IF Elfsborg (Home) vs Djurgardens IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF Form FAQs
What form are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 28W 5D 12L in their last 45 games (1.98 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 25W 6D 14L in their last 45 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Djurgardens IF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.36 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.50 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
IF Elfsborg have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won Djurgardens IF 0-4 IF Elfsborg on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Djurgardens IF 1-2 IF Elfsborg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 50%, Djurgardens IF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (IF Elfsborg) and 54% (Djurgardens IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 54% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 54% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 64% of Djurgardens IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Djurgardens IF defy the odds to beat IF Elfsborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IF Elfsborg 1-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.97 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.35 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.39 / defence 0.76 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.32 / defence 0.85, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 52% | Draw 22% | Djurgardens IF 26%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, Djurgardens IF 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.98 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.