IF Elfsborg 3-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 2.20 for Mjallby AIF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Mjallby AIF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: IF Elfsborg 2W, Mjallby AIF 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 44% versus Mjallby AIF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 60% | Mjallby AIF 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.02 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.348 / defence 0.752 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.979 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.370. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IF Elfsborg's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 IF Elfsborg games / 45 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 61% | Draw 21% | Mjallby AIF 18%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Mjallby AIF 5.56. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 60% | Mjallby AIF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 61% | Draw 21% | Mjallby AIF 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.02 / Mjallby AIF 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.348 / def 0.752 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.979 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Mjallby AIF xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
IF Elfsborg 3 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 61% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
Record (4 meetings): IF Elfsborg 2W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.98x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.75
18%
5.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.03
1.01
Mjallby AIF xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
5.48
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
2%
41.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.01 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 45 games, going 27W 5D 13L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.56 PPG from 45 outings (21W 7D 17L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.91 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.56 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 15W 4D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — IF Elfsborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.67 points per game from 21 outings (11W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.31 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 27W 5D 13L in their last 45 games (1.91 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 21W 7D 17L in their last 45 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Mjallby AIF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.33 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.67 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
4
Draws
2
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 48%, Mjallby AIF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (IF Elfsborg) and 43% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 33%; Mjallby AIF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 38% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 43% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Mjallby AIF 3-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.02 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.01 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.35 / defence 0.75 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.98 / defence 0.90, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 61% | Draw 21% | Mjallby AIF 18%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 60%, Mjallby AIF 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.91 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.