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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat IF Elfsborg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Degerfors IF beat IF Elfsborg 1-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.51 xG and Degerfors IF 1.70 xG, a combined 4.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.27 / defence 1.21 against Degerfors IF attack 1.02 / defence 1.39, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 56% | Draw 19% | Degerfors IF 26%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 63%, Degerfors IF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Degerfors IF's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.52 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights