IF Elfsborg 1-2 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
IF Elfsborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Borås Arena this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Degerfors IF have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward IF Elfsborg. A 0.50 PPG lead over Degerfors IF (1.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Degerfors IF in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours IF Elfsborg, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Degerfors IF — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with IF Elfsborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both IF Elfsborg and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 57% versus Degerfors IF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 63% | Degerfors IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.51 xG and Degerfors IF 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.274 / defence 1.211 | Degerfors IF attack 1.018 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.379. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 2.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 IF Elfsborg games / 24 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 56% | Draw 19% | Degerfors IF 26%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.79 | Draw 5.26 | Degerfors IF 3.85. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.21. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.21 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.51 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 79% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 60% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 56% | Draw 19% | Degerfors IF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 75% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.51 / Degerfors IF 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.274 / def 1.211 | Degerfors IF attack 1.018 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Degerfors IF xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 2 Degerfors IF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 56% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 26% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF?
Record (7 meetings): IF Elfsborg 5W | Draws 2 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.27x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 2.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (1.02x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.2%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
56%
1.80
19%
5.29
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
4.21
1.70
Degerfors IF xG
1.80
56%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.02
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
8%
12.33
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
2%
48.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.70 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 4.21.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 24W 10D 20L from 54 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 20L across 54 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.37 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 15W 6D 6L from 27 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 10W 8D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.37 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 24W 10D 20L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 20W 14D 20L in their last 54 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Degerfors IF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.89 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
IF Elfsborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-6 on 1 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 7, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 63%, Degerfors IF 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for IF Elfsborg and 56% for Degerfors IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of IF Elfsborg's games and 63% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 56% of Degerfors IF's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat IF Elfsborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat IF Elfsborg 1-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.51 xG and Degerfors IF 1.70 xG, a combined 4.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.27 / defence 1.21 against Degerfors IF attack 1.02 / defence 1.39, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 56% | Draw 19% | Degerfors IF 26%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 63%, Degerfors IF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.52 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.