Hammarby FF 3-0 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees IFK Goteborg travel to Tele2 Arena to take on Hammarby FF. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hammarby FF have posted 6W 3D 1L at Tele2 Arena — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Hammarby FF are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hammarby FF 67% and IFK Goteborg 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 61% | IFK Goteborg 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.90 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.149 / defence 0.936 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.175 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.083. Data: 49 Hammarby FF games / 49 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 53% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 23%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | IFK Goteborg 4.35. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 70% | IFK Goteborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 53% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Hammarby FF 1.90 / IFK Goteborg 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.149 / def 0.936 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.175 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.19
IFK Goteborg xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Hammarby FF 3 - 0 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 53% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against IFK Goteborg's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.13
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.08
1.19
IFK Goteborg xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
3%
29.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.19 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 18W 17D 14L from 49 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 12W 20D 17L across 49 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.45 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 9W 12D 3L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 6W 12D 6L across 24 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.20 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 18W 17D 14L in their last 49 games (1.45 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 12W 20D 17L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.62 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Hammarby FF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2025, when Hammarby FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 7, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 67%, IFK Goteborg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Hammarby FF) and 46% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg in 33%; IFK Goteborg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Hammarby FF's games and 58% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 46% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IFK Goteborg 3-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.90 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.19 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Goteborg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.15 / defence 0.94 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.18 / defence 1.15, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 53% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 23%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 61%, IFK Goteborg 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.45 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.