IF Elfsborg 0-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Malmo FF travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Elfsborg stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 6W 2D 2L at Borås Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Malmo FF have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
IF Elfsborg are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
IF Elfsborg in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Elfsborg 59% and Malmo FF 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 55% | Malmo FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.70 xG and Malmo FF 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.293 / defence 1.142 | Malmo FF attack 1.318 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.052. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — their λ of 1.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Malmo FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 IF Elfsborg games / 49 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 39% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 35%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Malmo FF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 50% | Malmo FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 39% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.70 / Malmo FF 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.293 / def 1.142 | Malmo FF attack 1.318 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Malmo FF xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?
IF Elfsborg 0 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 39% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.29x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
39%
2.54
26%
3.85
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.28
1.58
Malmo FF xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
8%
12.37
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.58 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 23W 18D 8L from 49 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 8L across 49 games — 1.94 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.78 PPG, Malmo FF on 1.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 12W 9D 3L from 24 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Malmo FF's away record stands at 10W 7D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.10 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 23W 18D 8L in their last 49 games (1.78 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 27W 14D 8L in their last 49 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Malmo FF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.88 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.54 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2023, when IF Elfsborg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
4
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Malmo FF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Malmo FF 1-2 IF Elfsborg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 62%, Malmo FF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for IF Elfsborg and 67% for Malmo FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of IF Elfsborg's games and 67% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 67% of Malmo FF's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Malmo FF defy the odds to beat IF Elfsborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat IF Elfsborg 0-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.70 xG and Malmo FF 1.58 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IF Elfsborg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.29 / defence 1.14 against Malmo FF attack 1.32 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 39% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 35%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Malmo FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 55%, Malmo FF 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Malmo FF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.78 PPG, Malmo FF 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Malmo FF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.