BK Hacken 1-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 53%, yet in-form Hammarby FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
BK Hacken and Hammarby FF meet at Bravida Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
BK Hacken's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's home record at Bravida Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — BK Hacken are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Hammarby FF (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Hammarby FF arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — BK Hacken register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Hammarby FF in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
BK Hacken half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BK Hacken 60% and Hammarby FF 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 54% | Hammarby FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.88 xG and Hammarby FF 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.183 / defence 1.009 | Hammarby FF attack 1.049 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.070. Data: 50 BK Hacken games / 50 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 53% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 21%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Hammarby FF 4.76. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hammarby FF (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BK Hacken if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 70% | Hammarby FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 53% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG BK Hacken 1.88 / Hammarby FF 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.183 / def 1.009 | Hammarby FF attack 1.049 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Hammarby FF xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF?
BK Hacken 1 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF part of?
BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 53% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both BK Hacken and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BK Hacken and Hammarby FF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.18) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (1.05x) against BK Hacken's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.92
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.01
1.13
Hammarby FF xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
15%
6.54
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
3%
30.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.13 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
BK Hacken come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 19D 13L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.48 PPG from 50 outings (19W 17D 14L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for BK Hacken against 1.48 for Hammarby FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
BK Hacken's home form reads 13W 6D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.21 points per game from 24 outings (8W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
BK Hacken are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.62 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Hammarby FF in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 18W 19D 13L in their last 50 games (1.46 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 19W 17D 14L in their last 50 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Hammarby FF away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.88 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.21 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 4-0 on 21 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BK Hacken have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
BK Hacken
5
Draws
2
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 3, Hammarby FF have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when BK Hacken 3-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Hammarby FF?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 54%, Hammarby FF 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for BK Hacken and 79% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of BK Hacken's games and 71% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of BK Hacken's matches and 79% of Hammarby FF's.
Do BK Hacken and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken and Hammarby FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken and Hammarby FF finished level at 1-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.88 xG and Hammarby FF 1.13 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. BK Hacken fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.18 / defence 1.01 against Hammarby FF attack 1.05 / defence 1.08, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 53% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 21%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 54%, Hammarby FF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.46 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.