AIK Stockholm 1-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 4 as AIK Stockholm welcome IF Elfsborg to Friends Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 May 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Friends Arena, AIK Stockholm have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Friends Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AIK Stockholm at 1.80 PPG versus IF Elfsborg's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 33% versus IF Elfsborg 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 33% | IF Elfsborg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.25 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.051 / defence 0.718 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.207 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.130. IF Elfsborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.207 — the away xG of 0.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. AIK Stockholm's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 AIK Stockholm games / 33 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 40% | Draw 33% | IF Elfsborg 27%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | IF Elfsborg 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 10% | IF Elfsborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 40% | Draw 33% | IF Elfsborg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.25 / IF Elfsborg 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.051 / def 0.718 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.207 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.98
IF Elfsborg xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 2 May 2021 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg part of?
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 40% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
40%
2.47
33%
3.05
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.23
0.98
IF Elfsborg xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.98 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 10W 9D 11L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 3L across 30 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.30 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 6W 2D 7L from 15 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 6W 7D 2L across 15 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.63 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Elfsborg in 67%.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 12W 15D 3L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.33 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.67 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when IF Elfsborg won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
2
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 27%, IF Elfsborg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (AIK Stockholm) and 47% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 33%; AIK Stockholm have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 60% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 47% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out IF Elfsborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat IF Elfsborg 1-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.25 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.98 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IF Elfsborg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.05 / defence 0.72 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.21 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 40% | Draw 33% | IF Elfsborg 27%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 33%, IF Elfsborg 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.30 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.