Hammarby FF 3-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 5 as Hammarby FF welcome Sirius to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hammarby FF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sirius — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Sirius have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hammarby FF register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Sirius in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sirius in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hammarby FF 67% and Sirius 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 67% | Sirius 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.37 xG and Sirius 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.079 / defence 0.936 | Sirius attack 1.034 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.084. Data: 34 Hammarby FF games / 34 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 43% | Draw 29% | Sirius 28%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Sirius 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hammarby FF 80% | Sirius 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 43% | Draw 29% | Sirius 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Hammarby FF 1.37 / Sirius 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.079 / def 0.936 | Sirius attack 1.034 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sirius xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Sirius kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 May 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Hammarby FF 3 - 2 Sirius.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Sirius part of?
Hammarby FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 43% chance of winning, Sirius a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hammarby FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Sirius in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Sirius (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
43%
2.30
29%
3.50
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.42
1.05
Sirius xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
7%
13.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.05 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 11D 9L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.27 PPG from 30 outings (9W 11D 10L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.37 PPG, Sirius on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hammarby FF's home form reads 4W 9D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.13 points per game from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.43 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Sirius in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 10W 11D 9L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Sirius have gone 9W 11D 10L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Sirius away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.40 PPG; Sirius away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, Sirius have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Sirius 2-0 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Sirius see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 60%, Sirius 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hammarby FF) and 47% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Sirius in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hammarby FF's games and 53% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 47% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sirius in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out Sirius 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Sirius 3-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.37 xG and Sirius 1.05 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sirius outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Sirius attack 1.03 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 43% | Draw 29% | Sirius 28%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 67%, Sirius 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.37 PPG, Sirius 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.