Degerfors IF vs Gais – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus Gais in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF at Stora Valla this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Gais (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Gais have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Degerfors IF, 1.10 for Gais — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Degerfors IF lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 47% versus Gais 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 49% | Gais 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.11 xG and Gais 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.847 / defence 0.874 | Gais attack 0.903 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.296. Data: 53 Degerfors IF games / 53 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 38% | Draw 30% | Gais 33%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Gais 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 40% | Gais 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 38% | Draw 30% | Gais 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Degerfors IF 1.11 / Gais 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.847 / def 0.874 | Gais attack 0.903 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gais xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Gais kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Gais is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Stora Valla.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Gais part of?
Degerfors IF vs Gais is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 38% chance of winning, Gais a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Degerfors IF and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Gais?
Record (3 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 1 | Gais 2W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Gais in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Gais (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.90x) against Degerfors IF's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
38%
2.66
30%
3.38
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.14
1.02
Gais xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.02 for Gais, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 13W 11D 29L from 53 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 15L across 53 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gais by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 4W 7D 15L from 26 games — 0.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gais's away record stands at 9W 8D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.38 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Gais in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 13W 11D 29L in their last 53 games (0.94 PPG), while Gais have gone 22W 16D 15L in their last 53 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Gais away?
Gais's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 0.73 PPG; Gais away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Gais in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 0-3 on 19 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Gais?
From 3 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Gais have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Gais 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 38%, Gais 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Degerfors IF) and 50% (Gais).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 54% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 50% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Gais tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Gais in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.