Degerfors IF 1-4 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mjallby AIF (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Degerfors IF face Mjallby AIF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Mjallby AIF have collected 2.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 9W 1D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Mjallby AIF arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Mjallby AIF, who have 7 wins from 8 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Degerfors IF 0–1 Mjallby AIF — a Mjallby AIF win.
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 7 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 60% and Mjallby AIF 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 52% | Mjallby AIF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.99 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.707 / defence 0.999 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.032 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.316. Degerfors IF's attack rating of 0.707 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Degerfors IF's last 36 games and Mjallby AIF's last 36.
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 26% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 44%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.90 | Draw 3.25 | Mjallby AIF 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Degerfors IF's last 10 home games and Mjallby AIF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Degerfors IF 30% (last 10 home games) | Mjallby AIF 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 7 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 26% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Degerfors IF 0.99 / Mjallby AIF 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.707 / def 0.999 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.032 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Mjallby AIF xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF FAQs
What time does Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Degerfors IF 1 - 4 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 7) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 26% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.03x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Degerfors IF's last 36 games and Mjallby AIF's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
26%
3.90
31%
3.25
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.35
1.36
Mjallby AIF xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
7%
15.12
16%
6.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 13.0 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.36 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 23W 16D 21L from 60 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 37W 14D 9L across 60 games — 2.08 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 10W 8D 12L from their last 30 home games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 17W 5D 8L across their last 30 away games, a 1.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.68 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Mjallby AIF in 60%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Degerfors IF (Home) vs Mjallby AIF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Degerfors IF
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF Form FAQs
What form are Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 23W 16D 21L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 37W 14D 9L in their last 60 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.27 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF, the earliest from May 2021. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won Mjallby AIF 4-1 Degerfors IF on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
8
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Degerfors IF have won 0, Mjallby AIF have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Mjallby AIF 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, Mjallby AIF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Degerfors IF) and 57% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 33%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 53% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 57% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 67% of Mjallby AIF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Degerfors IF 1-4 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.99 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.36 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.36 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.71 / defence 1.00 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.03 / defence 0.86, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 26% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 44%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 52%, Mjallby AIF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.42. Form held, and they took the win. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.