Degerfors IF 2-2 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Degerfors IF host Hammarby FF at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 25 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 4W 6D 0L at Stora Valla — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Degerfors IF) versus 1.60 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hammarby FF have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Degerfors IF.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 1–3 with Hammarby FF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hammarby FF have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 53% versus Hammarby FF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | Hammarby FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.70 xG and Hammarby FF 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.937 / defence 1.077 | Hammarby FF attack 0.896 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.139. Data: 39 Degerfors IF games / 39 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 51% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 24%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Hammarby FF 4.17. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 60% | Hammarby FF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Thursday 25 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 51% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Degerfors IF 1.70 / Hammarby FF 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.937 / def 1.077 | Hammarby FF attack 0.896 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Hammarby FF xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 25 May 2023 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Degerfors IF 2 - 2 Hammarby FF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 51% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF?
Record (5 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 0 | Hammarby FF 5W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.94) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
51%
1.98
25%
3.94
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.80
1.10
Hammarby FF xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
4%
22.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.10 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 17W 14D 29L from 60 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Hammarby FF, meanwhile, have gone 31W 16D 13L across 60 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 12W 7D 11L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hammarby FF's away record stands at 11W 8D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.90 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 31W 16D 13L in their last 60 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.43 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Hammarby FF won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
7
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Hammarby FF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 4-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, Hammarby FF 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Degerfors IF) and 47% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 37%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 33% of games; Hammarby FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 47% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 47% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 18, as Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.70 xG and Hammarby FF 1.10 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Hammarby FF attack 0.90 / defence 1.11, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 51% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 24%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 53%, Hammarby FF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.