IFK Goteborg 1-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 9 as IFK Goteborg welcome Hammarby FF to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 May 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (IFK Goteborg) versus 1.60 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hammarby FF have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for IFK Goteborg.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Hammarby FF winning.
It is worth noting that Hammarby FF have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 47% versus Hammarby FF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 50% | Hammarby FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 2.05 xG and Hammarby FF 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 1.042 / defence 0.847 | Hammarby FF attack 0.891 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.130. Data: 38 IFK Goteborg games / 38 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 64% | Draw 22% | Hammarby FF 14%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Hammarby FF 7.14. The model has a clear lean to IFK Goteborg (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: IFK Goteborg 40% | Hammarby FF 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 64% | Draw 22% | Hammarby FF 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 51% | xG IFK Goteborg 2.05 / Hammarby FF 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 1.042 / def 0.847 | Hammarby FF attack 0.891 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Hammarby FF xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 64% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Goteborg 0W | Draws 0 | Hammarby FF 3W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
64%
1.55
22%
4.61
14%
7.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.90
0.85
Hammarby FF xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
7.20
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
2%
55.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.85 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 25W 11D 24L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Hammarby FF's form line: 31W 16D 13L from 60 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.43 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (13W 6D 11L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 11W 8D 11L from 30 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.90 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 25W 11D 24L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 31W 16D 13L in their last 60 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Hammarby FF away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.50 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.37 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2025, when Hammarby FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
7
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, Hammarby FF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 47%, Hammarby FF 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (IFK Goteborg) and 47% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 37%; Hammarby FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 47% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 47% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 9, as IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 2.05 xG and Hammarby FF 0.85 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. IFK Goteborg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.04 / defence 0.85 against Hammarby FF attack 0.89 / defence 1.16, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 64% | Draw 22% | Hammarby FF 14%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 50%, Hammarby FF 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.43 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.