Degerfors IF 1-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Varbergs BoIS FC travel to Stora Valla to take on Degerfors IF. The game is scheduled for Monday 29 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 7D 0L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 4W 6D 0L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Degerfors IF 1.60 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Degerfors IF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Degerfors IF have won 0, Varbergs BoIS FC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Degerfors IF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 53% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 2.07 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.974 / defence 1.149 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.951 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.147. Varbergs BoIS FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Degerfors IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Degerfors IF games / 39 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 56% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Varbergs BoIS FC 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Degerfors IF (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | Varbergs BoIS FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 56% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Degerfors IF 2.07 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.974 / def 1.149 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.951 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 29 May 2023 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Degerfors IF 1 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 56% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (4 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 3 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.97x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.57
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
3.33
1.25
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
13%
7.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
3%
35.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.25 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 14D 29L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 1.22 PPG from 60 outings (19W 16D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.08 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Degerfors IF's home form reads 12W 7D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (9W 6D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.43 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 0W 4D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
7
Draws
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, Varbergs BoIS FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Degerfors IF and 67% for Varbergs BoIS FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Degerfors IF's games and 70% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Degerfors IF's matches and 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 10, as Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 2.07 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.25 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.31, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 56% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 22%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 53%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.08 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.