Kalmar FF vs Sirius – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sirius (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kalmar FF face Sirius.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 8 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF at Guldfågeln Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Kalmar FF are significantly better at Guldfågeln Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sirius (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Sirius are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Sirius hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Sirius winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sirius have won 4 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sirius — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 42% versus Sirius 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 45% | Sirius 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 0.95 xG and Sirius 2.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.787 / defence 1.389 | Sirius attack 1.324 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.296. Kalmar FF's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sirius have an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — the away xG of 2.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Kalmar FF games / 53 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 13% | Draw 18% | Sirius 69%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 7.69 | Draw 5.56 | Sirius 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 50% | Sirius 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 13% | Draw 18% | Sirius 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 56% | xG Kalmar FF 0.95 / Sirius 2.38 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.787 / def 1.389 | Sirius attack 1.324 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Sirius (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
2.38
Sirius xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Sirius kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Sirius is scheduled to kick off at 15:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Guldfågeln Arena.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Sirius part of?
Kalmar FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 13% chance of winning, Sirius a 69% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kalmar FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
Record (10 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 5 | Sirius 4W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Sirius in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sirius (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.32x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 2.38.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
13%
7.50
18%
5.69
69%
1.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
3.33
2.38
Sirius xG
7.50
13%
Home win
5.69
18%
Draw
1.45
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
9%
10.83
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
1%
81.16
27%
3.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 2.38 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 23W 14D 16L from 53 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 28W 9D 16L across 53 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.75 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 17W 3D 6L from 26 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Kalmar FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sirius's away record stands at 13W 5D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 2.00 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 68%.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 23W 14D 16L in their last 53 games (1.57 PPG), while Sirius have gone 28W 9D 16L in their last 53 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Sirius away?
Kalmar FF's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 2.08 PPG; Sirius away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sirius in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sirius go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kalmar FF
5
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 1, Sirius have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Sirius 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 46%, Sirius 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Kalmar FF and 73% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Kalmar FF's games and 77% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalmar FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Kalmar FF's matches and 73% of Sirius's.
Do Kalmar FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Sirius in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.