Kalmar FF vs Sirius – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sirius (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kalmar FF face Sirius.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Kalmar FF versus Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF at this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Kalmar FF are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Sirius (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Sirius are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kalmar FF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sirius in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Sirius hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Sirius winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sirius have won 4 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Sirius — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 45% versus Sirius 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 47% | Sirius 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.43 xG and Sirius 2.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.891 / defence 1.207 | Sirius attack 1.509 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Sirius have an above-average attack strength of 1.509 — the away xG of 2.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Kalmar FF games / 49 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 22% | Draw 20% | Sirius 58%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 4.55 | Draw 5.00 | Sirius 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 2.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 60% | Sirius 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 22% | Draw 20% | Sirius 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 70% | xG Kalmar FF 1.43 / Sirius 2.39 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.891 / def 1.207 | Sirius attack 1.509 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Sirius (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
2.39
Sirius xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Sirius kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Sirius is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 November 2026.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Sirius part of?
Kalmar FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 22% chance of winning, Sirius a 58% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Kalmar FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
Record (10 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 5 | Sirius 4W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Sirius in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Sirius (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.51x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 2.39.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 1-3 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
22%
4.64
20%
4.90
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
1 – 3
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
3.82
2.39
Sirius xG
4.64
22%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
9%
10.87
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
2%
50.49
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 2.39 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 23W 14D 12L from 49 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 24W 9D 16L across 49 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.65 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 17W 3D 4L from 24 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Kalmar FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sirius's away record stands at 11W 5D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 2.04 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 71%.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 23W 14D 12L in their last 49 games (1.69 PPG), while Sirius have gone 24W 9D 16L in their last 49 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Sirius away?
Kalmar FF's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 2.25 PPG; Sirius away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Sirius in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sirius go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kalmar FF
5
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 1, Sirius have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Sirius 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Kalmar FF, 83% for Sirius — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Kalmar FF and 79% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kalmar FF's games and 83% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalmar FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Kalmar FF's matches and 79% of Sirius's.
Do Kalmar FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.