Degerfors IF 2-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Djurgardens IF make the trip to Stora Valla to face Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 April 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 7D 0L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 4W 6D 0L at Stora Valla — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Degerfors IF lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 53% versus Djurgardens IF 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | Djurgardens IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.49 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.109 / defence 1.125 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.752 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.012. Data: 34 Degerfors IF games / 34 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 52% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 22%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Djurgardens IF 4.55. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 60% | Djurgardens IF 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 52% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Degerfors IF 1.49 / Djurgardens IF 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.109 / def 1.125 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.752 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Djurgardens IF xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Degerfors IF 2 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 52% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (4 meetings): Degerfors IF 2W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 2W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 1.11x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.75x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.81
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.35
0.86
Djurgardens IF xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
5%
20.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 0.86 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 17W 14D 29L from 60 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 34W 12D 14L across 60 games — 1.90 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Djurgardens IF by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 12W 7D 11L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 13W 9D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.68 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 34W 12D 14L in their last 60 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.43 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 5-1 on 6 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
5
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, Djurgardens IF 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Degerfors IF) and 30% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 43%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 33% of games; Djurgardens IF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 30% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 30% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Degerfors IF edge out Djurgardens IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Djurgardens IF 2-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.49 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.86 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.11 / defence 1.12 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.75 / defence 0.93, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 52% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 22%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 53%, Djurgardens IF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.