Degerfors IF 1-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 44%, yet in-form IF Elfsborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 April 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 7D 0L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 games at Stora Valla this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IF Elfsborg have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. IF Elfsborg are 0.90 PPG clear of Degerfors IF in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (2.50 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 4 meetings, IF Elfsborg have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Degerfors IF's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IF Elfsborg have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 53% versus IF Elfsborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | IF Elfsborg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.31 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.121 / defence 0.978 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.914 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.052. IF Elfsborg's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 33 Degerfors IF games / 33 IF Elfsborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 26%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | IF Elfsborg 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IF Elfsborg (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 60% | IF Elfsborg 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Degerfors IF 1.31 / IF Elfsborg 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.121 / def 0.978 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.914 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
0.94
IF Elfsborg xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Degerfors IF 1 - 2 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 44% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (4 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 3W.
What form are Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 1.12x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.91x) against Degerfors IF's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
44%
2.25
29%
3.41
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.25
0.94
IF Elfsborg xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
7%
14.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 0.94 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Degerfors IF come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 14D 29L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.73 PPG from 60 outings (30W 14D 16L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Degerfors IF's home form reads 12W 7D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.60 points per game from 30 outings (14W 6D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.77 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 30W 14D 16L in their last 60 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.43 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-6 on 1 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
6
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, IF Elfsborg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, IF Elfsborg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Degerfors IF) and 50% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 33%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 47% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Elfsborg defy the odds to beat Degerfors IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Degerfors IF 1-2 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.31 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.94 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.91 / defence 0.79, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 26%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 53%, IF Elfsborg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.