BK Hacken 4-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Djurgardens IF travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Bravida Arena, BK Hacken have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Djurgardens IF away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BK Hacken 2.00 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for BK Hacken, 2 for Djurgardens IF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with BK Hacken winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Djurgardens IF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 75% versus Djurgardens IF 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 63% | Djurgardens IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.84 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.295 / defence 1.225 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.772 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.012. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 BK Hacken games / 35 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 58% | Draw 24% | Djurgardens IF 19%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Djurgardens IF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 80% | Djurgardens IF 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 58% | Draw 24% | Djurgardens IF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG BK Hacken 1.84 / Djurgardens IF 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.295 / def 1.225 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.772 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Djurgardens IF xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
BK Hacken 4 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF part of?
BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 58% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
Record (3 meetings): BK Hacken 1W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 2W.
What form are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.29x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
58%
1.74
24%
4.24
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.79
0.96
Djurgardens IF xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
3%
33.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for BK Hacken and 0.96 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 27W 19D 14L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 34W 12D 14L from 60 games, 1.90 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.67 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (15W 7D 8L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 13W 9D 8L from 30 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.68 scored and 0.92 conceded. BK Hacken's scoring rate against Djurgardens IF's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 27W 19D 14L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 34W 12D 14L in their last 60 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Djurgardens IF away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.73 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 6 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2025, when Djurgardens IF won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 1W 0D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
BK Hacken
2
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 2, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2026, when BK Hacken 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 73%, Djurgardens IF 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (BK Hacken) and 30% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 43%; Djurgardens IF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 30% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of BK Hacken's recent games and 30% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BK Hacken run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Djurgardens IF 4-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.84 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.96 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.29 / defence 1.23 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.77 / defence 0.97, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 58% | Draw 24% | Djurgardens IF 19%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 63%, Djurgardens IF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.67 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.23 average — above their attacking norm. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.