AIK Stockholm 1-3 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 69% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Sirius travel to Strawberry Arena to take on AIK Stockholm. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
AIK Stockholm's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Strawberry Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strawberry Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sirius's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sirius's 2.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of AIK Stockholm's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for AIK Stockholm, 0 for Sirius and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2023, ended 1–0 with AIK Stockholm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Sirius in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 50% versus Sirius 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 47% | Sirius 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 2.12 xG and Sirius 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.424 / defence 0.708 | Sirius attack 0.782 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.398. AIK Stockholm carry an above-average attack strength of 1.424 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AIK Stockholm's defence rating of 0.708 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 AIK Stockholm games / 37 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 69% | Draw 19% | Sirius 12%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Sirius 8.33. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
AIK Stockholm dominate the H2H record, yet Sirius are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 69% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sirius (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 50% | Sirius 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 69% | Draw 19% | Sirius 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 47% | xG AIK Stockholm 2.12 / Sirius 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.424 / def 0.708 | Sirius attack 0.782 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Sirius xG
47%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Sirius kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 3 Sirius.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Sirius part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 69% chance of winning, Sirius a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Sirius?
Record (5 meetings): AIK Stockholm 2W | Draws 3 | Sirius 0W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Sirius in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Sirius (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 1.42x the league average against Sirius's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
69%
1.46
19%
5.25
12%
8.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.90
0.77
Sirius xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.25
19%
Draw
8.06
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
12%
8.37
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
1%
67.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.77 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 23W 17D 20L from 60 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 25L across 60 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.43 PPG, Sirius on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 14W 10D 6L from 30 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 8W 11D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.37 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Sirius in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Sirius have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Sirius away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.73 PPG; Sirius away: 1.17 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sirius in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AIK Stockholm and Sirius runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2026, when Sirius won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Sirius have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Sirius?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 40%, Sirius 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (AIK Stockholm) and 53% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sirius in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 47% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 53% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Sirius tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat AIK Stockholm 1-3 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 2.12 xG and Sirius 0.77 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. AIK Stockholm fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sirius outscored their 0.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.42 / defence 0.71 against Sirius attack 0.78 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 69% | Draw 19% | Sirius 12%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Sirius win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 47%, Sirius 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.43 PPG, Sirius 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.