IFK Goteborg 0-3 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Malmo FF (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IFK Goteborg face Malmo FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg host Malmo FF at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 13 May 2024 at 18:10 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Goteborg — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Malmo FF — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for IFK Goteborg, 3 for Malmo FF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IFK Goteborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 48% versus Malmo FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 45% | Malmo FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 0.97 xG and Malmo FF 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.747 / defence 1.054 | Malmo FF attack 1.349 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.397. IFK Goteborg's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Malmo FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 IFK Goteborg games / 37 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 18% | Draw 21% | Malmo FF 61%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 5.56 | Draw 4.76 | Malmo FF 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Malmo FF (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 50% | Malmo FF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 13 May 2024, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 18% | Draw 21% | Malmo FF 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG IFK Goteborg 0.97 / Malmo FF 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.747 / def 1.054 | Malmo FF attack 1.349 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Malmo FF xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 13 May 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 3 Malmo FF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 18% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 61% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF?
Record (5 meetings): IFK Goteborg 1W | Draws 1 | Malmo FF 3W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Malmo FF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
18%
5.61
21%
4.71
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.96
1.99
Malmo FF xG
5.61
18%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
14%
7.29
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
2%
40.87
23%
4.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.99 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 22W 13D 25L from 60 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Malmo FF, meanwhile, have gone 33W 11D 16L across 60 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Goteborg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 12W 7D 11L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Malmo FF's away record stands at 14W 4D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.77 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 22W 13D 25L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 33W 11D 16L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.43 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.53 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Jul 2026, when Malmo FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
6
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 2, Malmo FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Malmo FF 4-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 50%, Malmo FF 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (IFK Goteborg) and 53% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: Malmo FF in 33%; Malmo FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 47% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 53% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Malmo FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat IFK Goteborg 0-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 0.97 xG and Malmo FF 1.99 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. IFK Goteborg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Malmo FF outscored their 1.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.75 / defence 1.05 against Malmo FF attack 1.35 / defence 0.84, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 18% | Draw 21% | Malmo FF 61%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, Malmo FF 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.