Sirius 2-2 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 42%, yet in-form Sirius provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sirius vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Sirius (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sirius's home record at Studenternas IP: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Sirius's favour (2.20 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sirius, 2 for IFK Goteborg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Sirius winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IFK Goteborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 47% versus IFK Goteborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 53% | IFK Goteborg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.05 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.852 / defence 1.006 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.922 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.377. IFK Goteborg's defence strength of 0.765 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Sirius games / 38 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 31% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 42%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | IFK Goteborg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sirius (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 50% | IFK Goteborg 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 31% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Sirius 1.05 / IFK Goteborg 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.852 / def 1.006 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.922 / def 0.765 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.28
IFK Goteborg xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Sirius vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Sirius 2 - 2 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Sirius vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Sirius vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 31% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sirius and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Goteborg?
Record (5 meetings): Sirius 2W | Draws 1 | IFK Goteborg 2W.
What form are Sirius and IFK Goteborg in?
Sirius (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sirius's attack at 0.85x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.92x) against Sirius's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
31%
3.28
28%
3.58
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.33
1.28
IFK Goteborg xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
9%
11.73
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sirius and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Sirius and 1.28 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sirius's recent record stands at 21W 14D 25L from 60 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 25L across 60 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Sirius against 1.32 for IFK Goteborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sirius have managed 13W 3D 14L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 10W 6D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sirius are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.25 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 22W 13D 25L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Sirius's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.40 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Sirius or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-1 on 26 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sirius
3
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sirius 4-1 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 47%, IFK Goteborg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sirius) and 53% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sirius's recent matches and 47% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Sirius's recent games and 53% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius and IFK Goteborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius and IFK Goteborg finished level at 2-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.05 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.28 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.92 / defence 0.77, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 31% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 42%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 53%, IFK Goteborg 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.28 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.