AIK Stockholm 0-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Friends Arena to take on AIK Stockholm. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 July 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm at Friends Arena this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Friends Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — AIK Stockholm are significantly better at Friends Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
AIK Stockholm are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). AIK Stockholm's 20% and Mjallby AIF's 10% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for AIK Stockholm, 0 for Mjallby AIF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
AIK Stockholm trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Mjallby AIF trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 44% versus Mjallby AIF 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AIK Stockholm 39% | Mjallby AIF 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.34 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.993 / defence 0.729 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.730 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.130. AIK Stockholm's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 AIK Stockholm games / 41 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 55% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 17%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.82 | Draw 3.45 | Mjallby AIF 5.88. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Mjallby AIF's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 20% | Mjallby AIF 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 55% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 33% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.34 / Mjallby AIF 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.993 / def 0.729 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.730 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Mjallby AIF xG
33%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 July 2022 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 55% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
Record (1 meetings): AIK Stockholm 0W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 0W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 0.99x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
55%
1.83
29%
3.51
17%
5.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
1.94
0.60
Mjallby AIF xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
5.97
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
30%
3.33
4%
22.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.3 | 11.6 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.60 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 41 games, going 24W 8D 9L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.32 PPG from 41 outings (13W 15D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 17W 3D 0L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.95 PPG overall — AIK Stockholm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.10 points per game from 20 outings (5W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.10 scored and 0.90 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Mjallby AIF in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 24W 8D 9L in their last 41 games (1.95 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 13W 15D 13L in their last 41 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Mjallby AIF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 2.70 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.10 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
2
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Mjallby AIF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — AIK Stockholm 35% BTTS, Mjallby AIF 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for AIK Stockholm and 30% for Mjallby AIF.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 40%; Mjallby AIF in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 30% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 30% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat AIK Stockholm 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat AIK Stockholm 0-1 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.34 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.60 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AIK Stockholm fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.99 / defence 0.73 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.73 / defence 0.89, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 55% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 17%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Mjallby AIF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 39%, Mjallby AIF 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Mjallby AIF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.