Mjallby AIF 1-2 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees BK Hacken travel to Strandvallen to take on Mjallby AIF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 July 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour BK Hacken — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mjallby AIF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, BK Hacken in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Mjallby AIF have won 0, BK Hacken 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 31% versus BK Hacken 76%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 29% | BK Hacken 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.35 xG and BK Hacken 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.953 / defence 0.881 | BK Hacken attack 1.242 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.056. BK Hacken have an above-average attack strength of 1.242 — the away xG of 1.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Mjallby AIF games / 42 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 41% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 32%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | BK Hacken 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form BK Hacken (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 60% | BK Hacken 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 41% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.35 / BK Hacken 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.953 / def 0.881 | BK Hacken attack 1.242 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.15
BK Hacken xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 2 BK Hacken.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken part of?
Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 41% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
Record (1 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 1 | BK Hacken 0W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (0.95) and BK Hacken's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.73
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.50
1.15
BK Hacken xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.15 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 14W 15D 13L from 42 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 13L across 42 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.36 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 8W 8D 5L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 6W 9D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.69 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 76%.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 14W 15D 13L in their last 42 games (1.36 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 16W 13D 13L in their last 42 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or BK Hacken away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.52 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2023, when BK Hacken won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
4
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 5, BK Hacken have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
BK Hacken see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 33%, BK Hacken 81% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Mjallby AIF) and 57% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Mjallby AIF's games and 81% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 57% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as BK Hacken defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Mjallby AIF 1-2 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.35 xG and BK Hacken 1.15 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BK Hacken outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.95 / defence 0.88 against BK Hacken attack 1.24 / defence 0.95, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 41% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 32%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual BK Hacken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 29%, BK Hacken 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.36 PPG, BK Hacken 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.