Djurgardens IF 1-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF at Tele2 Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Djurgardens IF at 1.80 PPG versus Hammarby FF's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Djurgardens IF, 0 for Hammarby FF and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 4–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 42% versus Hammarby FF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 51% | Hammarby FF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.93 xG and Hammarby FF 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.493 / defence 0.864 | Hammarby FF attack 1.101 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.129. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.493 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Djurgardens IF games / 41 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 57% | Draw 22% | Hammarby FF 21%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Hammarby FF 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Djurgardens IF 50% | Hammarby FF 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 57% | Draw 22% | Hammarby FF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.93 / Hammarby FF 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.493 / def 0.864 | Hammarby FF attack 1.101 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Hammarby FF xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 57% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
Record (1 meetings): Djurgardens IF 1W | Draws 0 | Hammarby FF 0W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.49) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
57%
1.74
22%
4.56
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.01
1.07
Hammarby FF xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
14%
6.91
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
3%
33.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.07 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 22W 9D 10L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 21W 11D 9L from 41 games, 1.80 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.83 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 2.25 PPG from 20 outings (14W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 7W 5D 8L from 20 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.83 scored and 1.24 conceded. Hammarby FF's attacking output running into Djurgardens IF's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 22W 9D 10L in their last 41 games (1.83 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 21W 11D 9L in their last 41 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.25 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Djurgardens IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
4
Draws
4
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 55%, Hammarby FF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Djurgardens IF and 45% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 50% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 45% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out Hammarby FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Hammarby FF 1-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.93 xG and Hammarby FF 1.07 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Djurgardens IF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.49 / defence 0.86 against Hammarby FF attack 1.10 / defence 0.86, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 57% | Draw 22% | Hammarby FF 21%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 51%, Hammarby FF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.83 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.