Villarreal vs Osasuna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Villarreal and Osasuna meet at Estadio de la Ceramica in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Villarreal (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal at Estadio de la Ceramica this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Villarreal are significantly better at Estadio de la Ceramica than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Villarreal have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Osasuna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Villarreal have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 10 meetings, with Osasuna managing just 2 victories and 3 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Villarreal and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 64% versus Osasuna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 60% | Osasuna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.55 xG and Osasuna 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.024 / defence 1.040 | Osasuna attack 1.037 / defence 1.513. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.274. Osasuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.513 — this is suppressing Villarreal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Villarreal games / 47 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 62% | Draw 20% | Osasuna 18%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Osasuna 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.93 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 90% | Osasuna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 62% | Draw 20% | Osasuna 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 70% | xG Villarreal 2.55 / Osasuna 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.024 / def 1.040 | Osasuna attack 1.037 / def 1.513 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Osasuna xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Osasuna kick off?
Villarreal vs Osasuna is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 23 May 2027 at Estadio de la Ceramica.
Where is Villarreal vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Ceramica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Osasuna part of?
Villarreal vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 62% chance of winning, Osasuna a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Villarreal and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Osasuna?
Record (10 meetings): Villarreal 5W | Draws 3 | Osasuna 2W.
What form are Villarreal and Osasuna in?
Villarreal (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Villarreal's attack rating (1.02) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 2.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (1.04x) against Villarreal's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
62%
1.61
20%
5.06
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Villarreal xG
Total xG
3.93
1.38
Osasuna xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
8%
12.83
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
1%
70.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.38 for Osasuna, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Villarreal come into this having played 47 games, going 24W 9D 14L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.13 PPG from 47 outings (14W 11D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Osasuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Villarreal's home form reads 16W 2D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Villarreal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 0.57 points per game from 23 outings (3W 4D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Villarreal are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.15 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 24W 9D 14L in their last 47 games (1.72 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 14W 11D 22L in their last 47 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Osasuna away?
Villarreal's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.17 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 0-3 on 19 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Osasuna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Osasuna?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 65%, Osasuna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Villarreal and 48% for Osasuna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Villarreal's recent matches and 44% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Villarreal vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Villarreal's matches and 48% of Osasuna's.
Do Villarreal and Osasuna tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.