Villarreal vs Osasuna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Villarreal and Osasuna meet at Estadio de la Ceramica in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Villarreal (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Villarreal have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Villarreal at Estadio de la Ceramica this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Villarreal are significantly better at Estadio de la Ceramica than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Villarreal have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Osasuna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Villarreal have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 10 meetings, with Osasuna managing just 2 victories and 3 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Villarreal and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 64% versus Osasuna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 60% | Osasuna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.90 xG and Osasuna 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.232 / defence 1.253 | Osasuna attack 1.019 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.142. Data: 42 Villarreal games / 41 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 48% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 30%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | Osasuna 3.33. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Villarreal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 90% | Osasuna 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 48% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Villarreal 1.90 / Osasuna 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.232 / def 1.253 | Osasuna attack 1.019 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Osasuna xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Osasuna kick off?
Villarreal vs Osasuna is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 23 May 2027 at Estadio de la Ceramica.
Where is Villarreal vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Ceramica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Osasuna part of?
Villarreal vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 48% chance of winning, Osasuna a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Villarreal and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Osasuna?
Record (10 meetings): Villarreal 5W | Draws 3 | Osasuna 2W.
What form are Villarreal and Osasuna in?
Villarreal (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Villarreal's attack rating (1.23) and Osasuna's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (1.02x) against Villarreal's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
48%
2.08
22%
4.49
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Villarreal xG
Total xG
3.36
1.46
Osasuna xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
4%
22.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.46 for Osasuna, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Villarreal come into this having played 42 games, going 22W 8D 12L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Villarreal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.17 PPG from 42 outings (13W 10D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Villarreal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Osasuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Villarreal's home form reads 15W 1D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.30 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Villarreal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 0.65 points per game from 20 outings (3W 4D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Villarreal are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 22W 8D 12L in their last 42 games (1.76 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Osasuna away?
Villarreal's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.30 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 0-3 on 19 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Osasuna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Osasuna?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 65%, Osasuna 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Villarreal and 45% for Osasuna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Osasuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Villarreal's games and 45% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Villarreal's matches and 45% of Osasuna's.
Do Villarreal and Osasuna tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.